{"id":54759,"date":"2017-03-01T14:38:54","date_gmt":"2017-03-01T13:38:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ieseg.fr\/?post_type=news&#038;p=54759\/"},"modified":"2025-09-10T12:30:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T10:30:07","slug":"climate-negotiators-responses-to-climate-model-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.ieseg.fr\/en\/news\/climate-negotiators-responses-to-climate-model-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change: new research highlights that policymakers adopt scientific information conservatively"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New research highlights that exposure to climate models\u2019 predictions affects policymakers and climate negotiators less than the informed general public. But the right presentation format can improve forecasts\u2019 effectiveness.<\/p>\n<p>These are the findings\u00a0 of research involving academics from Bocconi University, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Princeton University, I\u00c9SEG School of Management (LEM CNRS), Fordham University, and Politecnico di Milano and publisihed\u00a0 in the article \u201cCOP21 Climate Negotiators\u2019 Responses to Climate Model Forecasts&#8221;, (by Valentina Bosetti, Elke Weber, Lo\u00efc Berger, David Budescu, Ning Liu, Massimo Tavoni, in Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038\/nclimate3208).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_52927\" style=\"width: 211px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-52927\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-52927\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ieseg.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/LoicBerger.jpg\" alt=\"loic-berger\" width=\"201\" height=\"301\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-52927\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Professor Lo\u00efc BERGER<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The group of researchers, including <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ieseg.fr\/en\/faculty-and-research\/professor\/?id=2660\">Prof. Lo\u00efc Berger<\/a> from I\u00c9SEG, tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference updated their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models\u2019 forecasts. They randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.<\/p>\n<p>In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia.<\/p>\n<p>The experiment was then repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar prior positions\/beliefs, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models\u2019 forecasts than policymakers.<\/p>\n<p>View the advance online publication of the article on the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate3208.html\">Nature Climate Change website<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New research highlights that exposure to climate models\u2019 predictions affects policymakers and climate negotiators less than the informed general public. But the right presentation format can improve forecasts\u2019 effectiveness. These [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":49484,"menu_order":0,"template":"","news-category":[178,298],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Climate change: new research highlights that policymakers adopt scientific information conservatively - I\u00c9SEG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New research highlights that exposure to climate models\u2019 predictions affects policymakers and climate negotiators less than the informed general public.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ieseg.fr\/en\/news\/climate-negotiators-responses-to-climate-model-forecasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Climate change: new research highlights that policymakers adopt scientific information conservatively - 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