[IFLAME Research Seminar] Propagation of Immigration Shocks through Firm-to-Firm Trade Networks
October 9th, 2025
12pm – 6pm in Vauban Building (V106) & on Zoom
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Speaker: Murat KIRDAR, Koç University
abstract
This paper investigates the extent to which an immigration shock to a region propagates through supply chains. Using the unexpected arrival of Syrian refugees, who are densely concentrated in border regions of Turkey, we estimate how firms across the country are affected in terms of sales, employment, and wages. We also examine the impact of the shock on interprovincial trade, focusing on trade volume and network formation. The results reveal positive spillover effects of immigration for firms with pre-existing links to Syrian refugee-hosting regions through upstream and downstream supply chain connections. Furthermore, we find evidence of increased trade volume and network expansion through the formation of new trade linkages.